Category: Skew

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Bitcoin derivatives metrics reflect traders’ neutral sentiment, but anything can happen

BTC price is caught in the middle of a game of tug-o-war, as evidenced by the fact that pro traders are equally pricing upside and downside risk instruments. Bitcoin’s (BTC) last daily close above $45,000 was 66 days ago, but more importantly, the current $39,300 level was first seen on Jan. 7, 2021. The 13…
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Bitcoin’s sub-$40K range trading and mixed data reflect traders’ uncertainty

The market gave up last week’s gains from Bitcoin’s surge to $45,000, but derivatives metrics suggest retail traders are more bullish than market makers and whales. The phrase “hindsight is 20/20” is a perfect expression for financial markets because every price chart pattern and analysis is obvious after the movement has occurred. For example, traders…
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Ethereum price moves toward $3K, but pro traders choose not to add leverage

ETH price is storming toward a key resistance level, but pro traders are reluctant to add leverage for three important reasons. Even though Ether (ETH) price bounced over 20% from the $2,300 low on Feb. 22, derivatives data shows that investors are still cautious. To date, Ether’s price is down 24% for the year, and…
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Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical

Traders expect BTC to flip $40,000 back to support soon, but derivatives metrics signal that a different outcome could occur. The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack…
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Here’s why Ethereum traders could care less about ETH’s current weakness

ETH price could hit new lows near $3,600, but derivatives data suggests pro traders still feel bullish. Since hitting an all-time high at $4,870 on Nov. 10, Ether (ETH) price has been posting lower lows over the past 50 days. If this downtrend continues, the lower trendline support suggests that the altcoin will bottom at…
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3 reasons why Bitcoin’s drop to $56.5K may have been the local bottom

The absence of cascading liquidations, 25% delta skew and the margin lending ratio all suggest that Bitcoin price bottomed at $56,500. The first rule of Bitcoin (BTC) trading should be “expect the unexpected.” In just the past year alone, there have been five instances of 20% or higher daily gains, as well as five intraday…
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Bitcoin price descending channel and loss of momentum could turn $60K to resistance

After a slight hiccup in BTC futures premium, traders seem comfortable despite the $58,000 support retest and the risk of $60,000 turning to resistance. Bitcoin (BTC) appears to lack the strength to retest the $67,000 all-time high that it reached on Oct. 20 and this is causing investors to question whether or not the bullish…
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Bitcoin price is back at $50K, but exactly how ‘bullish’ are the bulls?

Bitcoin’s futures markets premium and options risk gauge show no signs of excessive leverage or FOMO from traders — yet. Cryptocurrency markets rallied 12.5% over the past seven days to reach a $2.44 trillion market capitalization. However, that move doesn’t seem to be inspiring confidence because the same level was tested 16 days ago when…
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All bark and some bite. China’s Bitcoin ban puts traders in the ‘fear’ zone

Bitcoin derivatives markets flipped neutral-to-bearish after China’s ‘crypto ban’ announcement triggered a BTC price dip to $40,600. China bans Bitcoin (BTC), again. No, we’re not traveling back in time. On Sept. 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) published a new set of measures to promote inter-departmental coordination on cracking down on crypto activity. The…
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Key Bitcoin options ‘fear’ indicator reflects traders’ regulatory concerns

On Tuesday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler re-confirmed his plan to crack down on cryptocurrencies, and traders’ regulatory concerns are confirmed by this key Bitcoin futures and options indicator. After 46 consecutive days of trading above $42,000, Bitcoin (BTC) price started to show weakness on Sept. 21. Over the last three days, the 13% accumulated loss…
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